To China, 2008 is a year of extremely rough every, a lot of incident happens consecutively. And Chinese economy foreground also becomes complicated and confusing, capital market is not lift a ban in size, drop ceaselessly below the element action such as impact of economy of financing, international again.
The more pessimistic panic should hold economy the more main area, remove the interference of murmur and subjective preference. The author thinks, epicycle economy produces the inflation that a of the turn main reason is high cost generation. And high cost is the fact that our country economy must face, negative to generation of our country economy effect, economy adds fast be issued to lower levels will be a corollary.
Our country economy is typical extensive economy, use up to resource great, reform development of 30 years makes our country native land natural resources scarce be short of degree taller and taller. Current, our country resource more and more count an import and the price is decided by the international market, rise plus manpower cost make Chinese economy enters high cost period.
Main to the concussion of our country economy show is in high cost grand, microcosmic two respects: Macroscopical go up, economy is added fast drop; Microcosmic go up, company profit space is compressed. And of city of ox of international heavy goods terminative with the product value that rises ceaselessly negative to the accumulation of downstream demand effect, will make the boom state of upriver industry lasts no longer, bearing of situation of trade of prospective upper reaches will see a fall after a rise.
Chinese economy enters high cost period
The resource that value underestimates, cheap the casting such as labour force the Chinese comparison in international competition advantage, exit and economy of investment drive China maintained old high speed growth. However, this compares an advantage to be being lost gradually today, economy grows needs resource to count an import increasingly, include variety of our country's richest the sources of energy even -- , coal. And the international price authority of these resource does not suffer our country left and right sides, in recent years " what does China buy, what rises in price " the best report that is this one current situation. Rise plus domestic labor price, when low cost is becoming the past, chinese economy enters high cost period.
The near future, index of price of our country raw material, fuel, motivation is climbed ceaselessly litre, the portion was in May 2008 111.9, adjacent the early days of 114.2 ordered the share high in October 2004. Energy field, july fuel power kind purchase price index for 130.1, successive 4 months exceed 120, be in very high level. Those who need an attention is, these data are obtained below the setting of our country price control. International oil price although the near future is adjusted considerably, still be in 100 dollars / bucket above. And the integral deficit that the result of price control is oil treatment and coking plant industry, although the government passes the means of administrative allowance to try to make up for temporarily, but this kind of circumstance cannot last for a long time.
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